FANTASY FOOTBALL: Draft Strategy (QB Position)
FANTASY FOOTBALL:
Draft Strategy (QB Position)
By Muntradamus
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2013 FANTASY FOOTBALL QB
Tonight we are going to analyze the QB position. Remember to draft the Kicker that goes along with your QB.
If your QB fails, you will be saved. If your QB fails on any given Sunday, you will most likely lose your week. If you do somehow win your week without your QB, you could have had a legendary Sunday that would have your league feared.
EARLY PRESEASON QB SLEEPER/BUST
*Compared to ADP Rankings on FantasyPros*
QB RANKINGS IN TIERS
TIER 1 – Bullet Proof BEAST
Drafting one of these guys gives you a Rock Solid QB#1 every single week. Your QB is the most important position as it is hard to win your championship when your highest scoring player (Total Points) is not among the league leaders.
I cannot imagine ranking any of these players outside of the Top 5 unless they play San Francisco or Seattle. Even when those QBs play those teams, you can still depend on a good amount of points. Drew Brees will be lucky enough to prove if that is true.
All three of these QBs are an automatic 4,000+ Yards/35 TDs. With the potential for more.
TIER 2 – Semi-Automatic BEAST
This group of QB’s will get the job done for you 90% of the time. That 10% will hurt you in most weeks, but hopefully that QB/K Combo Strategy comes into play with your Roster so you won’t have to deal with the hard hit.
All of these QBs are Superstars with BEAST potential. The only reason they are not in Tier 1 is because they have something that is holding them back. IF Cam does not run one week, while he do enough? Matt Ryan has a Redzone Monster on his squad, will that hurt him? Who is Tom Brady going to throw to get his 300+ Yards? Will Stafford’s weapons continue to drop TDs?
The answer to all of these questions.
Some weeks, your draft day fear will come to life. But not many.
TIER 3 – BEAST OR BUST
If your QB falls in the Tier 3 Category. You better have a dangerous BEAST squad from head-to-toe. While these QBs can have big weeks, big enough to put them comparable to Tier 1 Players. There will also be weeks where this group lets you down. More weeks than you would want to count, but if you have the QB/K Combo strategy, you will likely be able to dodge the loss. Wilson just fell out of Tier 2 with the news on Percy Harvin missing 2+ Months of the season. Kaepernick can easily jump this group and end up in Tier 2, RGIII with a strong preseason showing will do the same.
Romo has the most to prove, but Josh Freeman looks to be the new upgraded version. Andrew Luck will be much more conservative in 2013. Eli Manning will be an easy Tier 2 option if Hakeem Nicks shows his health this preseason.
TIER 4 – The Backup QB
All of the QBs in Tier 4 are backup quality with the ability to perform like a Tier 2. Most of the time these QBs will leave you with less than 15 Standard Points a game, which will not get the job done. While you think the QB/K strategy may make sense with this group, only on the weeks those QBs will be worth something. Justin Tucker will not be a playable option against the 49ers on any given week.
Michael Vick possibly has his last chance to be a starter, Cutler is playing for a contract, Tannehill/Rivers have big play WRs, Big Ben/Dalton/Palmer/Flacco/Schaub is the most boring 200+ Yard QBs you can ask for.
TIER 5 – Did You Really Play Him?
If at any point this season you end up playing one of these QBs. Chances are, your team is horrible.
RB POSITION COMING MONDAY NIGHT
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Muntradamus is a Fantasy Sports Expert who specializes in Fantasy Football/Baseball/Basketball. He is currently in his second season as a Pro on FantasyPros coming off of an impressive Rookie Campaign where he landed the #8 Overall In-Season Fantasy Football Rankings Expert. Which also included #1 WR of all Expert Sites. He is also one of two people to qualify for all DRAFTSTREET CHAMPIONSHIPS (MLB/NFL/NBA) in 2012. Most Historically, Muntradamus was the #1 Fantasy Football Expert of IDP & Overall Rankings in One Week, first and only time in Fantasy Sports History.
Thanks for the helpful breakdown for QB Tiers. One question I have: when would be a good time to target these QBs? In a 10 team standard scoring league at what round should the Tier 1 QBs go? Tier 2 QBs? Etc. Thanks for your great insight.
Muntz…The new look is fantastic!!!
Side note to my fellow Beastdomers… I found a way to help spread the word.
Face it..your single most fear is somebody in your league finding out about the site….so there is no word of mouth advertising. Lately while doing my Football Mock Drafts I’ve been making the few Mockers still hanging with me to the end aware of the site. (Figure why give the guys who bail early the advantage.) Just a thought…good luck to everyone in the upcoming year!!
This is definitely a good way to spread the word! I will be sure to do this as well.
Brain…I’m ESPN FF League, drafting 2nd in a 10 man league. By the time I draft again at 19 and 22 Brees and Rodgers are gone. Manning is on the Fence Brady is avail. If I want until my next selection (rounds 4 and 5) I can usually find Cam and Matt Ryan. Did you pick your draft order yet? Those drafting between 5-10 have a better chance of grabbing a Tier 1 QB with their second pick. If you can, after you find out when you’ll be drafting run a couple mock drafts. Bounce if off the Draft Strategy here as they appear to see where you get the advantage.
Brian, it depends what website you use for your league, assuming you’re doing an online draft. I personally use Yahoo so if you visit that link, you can see where people’s ADP’s are.
After that, if you’re gonna be rolling with Muntradamus’ rankings exclusively, compare the ADP’s versus Munt’s rankings. I’ll run through an example for the tier 1 QB’s based on Yahoo ADP.
1) Aaron Rodgers: ADP rank = 12.7 (QB1) vs. Munt rank = 2
2) Drew Brees: ADP rank = 18.7 (QB2) vs. Munt rank = 3
3) Peyton Manning: ADP rank = 25.2 (QB3) vs. Munt rank = 1
So now what you would do is line up the positional ranks of your projections (Munt’s rankings) to the ADP projections. So if the QB1 is being drafted at 12.7, then the “market value” for the QB1 is between the 12th and 13th pick on average, yet you have Peyton Manning as your #1 QB and his ADP is 25.2, so you can wait a bit to take him, until your next pick, but because you value Peyton as the potential QB1, you can potentially take him a few picks before his ADP if you don’t want to risk missing out on him. This is kind of the process you should be using throughout your draft, assessing market value, versus your value, and finding value.
I keep reading everywhere that QB’s are really deep this year, So don’t draft one early, instead load up on rb’s and draft a qb late.
What do you think?
It really depends on your specific draft. Going into the draft settled on one method is really a death sentence. Try and be flexible. For example, if in your league, Aaron Rodgers usually will get drafted in the 2nd round and you would never draft him there, don’t automatically write off taking Rodgers, just find a round value where you would draft him and then if he falls, you can take him there. Don’t just strictly say “I won’t take a QB before round X”.
I like to come up with a plan…sort of.. and then have a back up thought at each round. Each draft is different, you never know who might fall into your lap. Last year I had Brees drop to me at 10 (had to take him), but I had a good idea what RB or WR I wanted to take at the round I had initilally slated for a QB. Use the Beast Dome rankings to give u the advantage. I had a copy of the rankings with me last draft and highlighted who was selected. As things changed from my initial plan I always new who the best available (according to the Beast Dome Rankings)would be at the position i wanted / needed…good luck
who to draft with first round pick
It all depends on the league format. If TDs are worth 6 Points for QBs, then all 3 QBs are worth 1st Round Picks in Tier 1. You can probably get by with Drew Brees in Round 2.
If QB TDs are worth 4 Points, both Peyton and Rodgers should be locks for Round #1. Brees like above, should be Round 2.
While every year Fantasy sites tell you to do that.
I will continue to be the one to tell you that is not the case. Why take a player like Trent Richardson late in the 1st round who will give you more 90 Total Yards/0 TD games = Points, than 110 Yards/2 TD Games = 23 Points.
When you can draft a player like Peyton Manning who will give you 300+ Yards/3 TDs every game = 24 Points.
RB is deeper than usual this season, there is talent into the earlier 20s, with a lot of upside RBs in the mid 30s.
More on all of this Thursday in the Draft Day Strategy.
Yankee and Dallas Dave. Great answers as well.
Hey Munt,
What if your format could flex 2 QB’s. Would it be crazy to take 2 QB’s such as Peyton Manning and Drew Brees back to back with your 1 and 2 pick?
So BEAST DOME NATION,
IN PPR are good WRs more valuable than good RBs?
I think if you’re in a 2 QB league, you definitely want to grab QB’s really early. But it depends on your scoring system. How many pts is a passing TD and how many passing yds is 1 point worth?
If you look at last year, the elite tier #1 guys (doug martin, AP, calvin johnson, brandon marshall) were all very similar in PPR points for being RB #1,2 and WR #1,2.
But in general, I feel like it’s best to target the elite RB’s that will catch 60-75 passes as they can be more consistent plus get more total yards and add the receptions on top of it.
Where I’d say good WR’s are better than good RB’s is for guys like Marshawn Lynch or Alfred Morris where their yardage totals probably won’t be enough to overcome the fact that they don’t catch any passes.
In Yahoo leagues right now Peyton is going middle of Rd.3 to beginning of rd. 4. Jump on that?
In a 2 QB league it is important to grab two ELITE QBs.
There are 14 QBs you can trust this season, and you want two in that group. With how deep the RB class is from the 15-20 Range, you can go with the Back-to-Back QBs to start your draft. Just pick and choose your RBs wisely by grabbing 3 with your next 3 Picks, including Montee Ball.
so there is no way you can go Drew Brees, Peyton, then Gronk. and go 3 or 4 straight rbs?
There is no way you can go with that strategy unless you want to depend on all Rookie or Young RBs. Ball/Miller/Bell/Lacey only three of them will make it to you, only 1 will be consistent. You are asking for more problems than solutions of going QB/QB.
If your league is 2 QBs start. Draft both Peyton/Brees. Skip on Gronk, and load up on RB depth with your next 4 Picks.
I’m in a 14 team league that starts 1 QB…But scoring is a point for every 50 yards passing, every 15 rushing….Passing TD’s are 4…Rushing TD’s are 6.
What would your thoughts be on a QB in this type of league?
Personally, I think you need a guy that is going to throw 30+ TD’s….Or you need a guy that will rack up running stats…While everybody else is pretty worthless…
It’s an auction draft…Would you pay big bucks for somebody like Brees or Rodgers (probably 25-30% of cap) and build around them….Or pay something like 15% of cap for a guy like RGIII, Colin Kaep or maybe M Ryan?
Is online dating a total waste for most guys
Think the widely accepted jock back in highschool, But out in the real world. for example
interests: I go to Venezuela one per year to hang glide off a mountain, Everybody should do it at least once
A little about on your: I know 4 dialects, Am a Harvard Suda sperm Laude, and they often attend presidential campaign donation dinners with my buddies R. hard earned cash and Boehner.
job: vice chairman of Marketing for Google
the majority of that is hyperbole, But true this is, It has the same effect of elevating your social status in the eyes russian sexy girls of possib mates. Women look at a males social status, Like a man considers a woman looks when determining whether they would be a suitable partner. When I was online dating sites few things turned me off more than a man who spelled poorly, Typed with bad outline, and more. You don see that head to head, Though to be fair I would notice it once we interchanged numbers and started texting anyway.
I think since women are stereotypically less visual than men are it much harder for a man to attract a woman online than for a woman to attract a man, Since a huge portion of it is based on the user photos. Add onto that the wariness than women have about meeting up with a man online and it gets worse. For me I wanted to talk with a guy for a couple of weeks before considering meeting IRL, So those too pushy or not interesting enough to make the conversation last that long lost out. Perhaps they were much more interesting in person, But I can go on 10 dates a week to realize out; I found dating aggravating, I didn like get started, That why I went online so I didn have to go out with a bunch unique dudes every week.
as the name indicated I rambling. TL;DR Poor spelling isn noticed in real like interaction. In my last go round I began maybe 7 10 dates, 3 ended in a 2nd or more date, 2 ended in sex, And 1 contributed to a month long “affair” Which didn exercise routine.
It true you should put in more work than women do; I sent many message campaigns to no effect (But without a doubt nothing crazy, I only messaged women I was pretty looking at and had 5 me). i only say, we dunno, I sent maybe 40 50 msgs during that time (in support of rarely to women I hadnt already 5 matched with (i thought this was okcupid). And the person I was with for a month or so, I messaged cold weather, With no complementing.
Having actually zero success means your profile sucks, And your imagery suck. Weather your pictures suck because you ugly, Or since they just poorly chosen, I know. But your image quality, Message premium, And profile quality can absolutely get you ok results in dating foreign girls. countless messages sent, Maybe one or two reviews, And absolutely nothing willingness to meet up in person. I gotten many testimonials on my profile and I put some decent work into it, I a pretty clean dude, But online dating site really hasn gotten me anywhere. I also at the bottom of the pecking order if you’re considering what well received online; I quite short, indiana, I don aspire kids, etcetera.
It may not be the best thing for me though. I suppose various things work for different people. One benefit I gotten from online dating has worked sort of backwards for me; Nothing happened online so it encouraged me to get out more again and be bolder when I do.
I can think of it as “A total waste for most guys” Because I seen plenty of people go on great dates and form great relationships that started online. it probably just not my kind of thing though. I feel like some of the fun in dating gets sucked out with online stuff. I think people too easily write off a potential date because of some detail they discover online that they otherwise wouldn know or even care about if they found out in person. Does that seem sensible?
TL;DR online dating services doesn work for me, But it enthusiastic me to become even more outgoing and flirty. It better best for some than others; You make your decision on how well it works for you.