Fantasy Baseball Strategy:

Batting Average Is Overrated (2013)

 

By Muntradamus

 

BEAST DOME NATION.

I was contemplating posting my entire Draft Strategy, but because of the huge success of the VIP #1 Packages and all the positive Feedback.  I have decided to hold that information Hostage for the time being until I get more people asking for it.

At the end of this Weekend all my Rankings will be updated and posted for you.  Today I will tell you why you should not draft players because of their high batting averages.

 

DRAFT GUIDE VOL. III

(Coming Monday)

 

BATTING AVERAGE IS OVERRATED?

Before we get started.  I do want to say the players like Adam Dunn who will hit around .200 will hurt your baseball team more often than not.  But a player like Joe Mauer who will hit around .320 with 10 HRs and be drafted as the #2 Catcher Overall is not the way to go.

EXHIBIT A

JOE MAUER VS. J.P. ARENICIBIA

Joe Mauer in Round 4 with his 10 HRs/.320 Average/10 SBs/100 Runs. VS. a J.P. Arencibia  in Round 18 with his 25 HR/.230 Average/3 SBs/65 Runs.

Sure Joe Mauer is a big name and does great “Head & Shoulders” commercials as well as being the cover man on Video Games.  But he is turning into a very overrated Fantasy Player.  The only positive on Mauer is his 100 Runs from the Catcher position, but why pass on getting Jacoby Ellsbury who has 30 HR/50 SB potential or even miss out on a potential CY Young Pitcher in R.A. Dickey who will finally have great run support in 2013.

Mauer is a great fantasy player, but will his extra .90 Average Points make that big of a difference?  The easy answer is no.  Let’s say you have 10 Batters on your team.  Every batter on your team will get 500 At Bats.  That gives you 5,000 At Bats.  If Joe Mauer gets 100 Hits, will that 100 Hits make a difference in those 5,000 At Bats.  The answer is no, and the answer is to wait and take J.P. Arencibia towards the end of your draft.  Save your high draft picks for players that bring real value to your team.

 

EXHIBIT B

JOEY VOTTO vs. GARRETT JONES

Here is a guy in Joey Votto who will hit above .320.  You have to take him in Round #1 and you have to hope for 35 Home Runs and a clean bill of health.  Garrett Jones is a guy who will not get drafted in most leagues, he is on a contract season, and he can easily hit 30 Home Runs.  Garrett Jones may lose .70-.80 points of batting average compared to Votto, but once again we ask the question?

Will those extra 50-70 Hits make a big difference?  The answer is no, especially when the Home Run/RBI potential is semi-comparable and you can wait the ENTIRE draft to get this player.  Instead of drafting a declining Joey Votto who may not steal 10+ Bases again, you can get a Justin Verlander or even a potential 40 HR/40 SB player in Carlos Gonzalez.  Go ahead and wait, do not take Joey Votto because of his amazing batting average.

Or even wait until the end of the draft and get Adam Dunn who will have more power than Joey Votto.  When Adam Dunn is hot, he will hit above .300.  One of the streakiest players in baseball, Dunn is an easy 40 HRs every season, 2011 was a fluke.  If you can put Dunn on your bench, he is extremely valuable.

 

EXHIBIT C 

PABLO SANDOVAL vs. TREVOR PLOUFFE

Why take Pablo Sandoval as a Top 10 3B option.  His days of hitting 20 HRs are likely done.  He is not in shape, which does not bode well for a player who we can say is, “Fat.”  He will hit maybe above .300 by a smudge.  Instead you can wait until the #20 3B option for a up and coming Trevor Plouffe the Magic Dragon.  Plouffe has more power, exemplified by his 20+ Home Runs as a Minor League call up, and injured for a good chunk of 2012.  Plouffe may hit above .230, which is about a .70 point differential in batting average.  But then we ask again.

Will the extra 40-50 Hits make that big of a difference.  The answer is once again no on a team where you will get 5,000 At Bats. I would much rather wait until the end of my draft and get a player with more Power and more RBI potential than a player who will go 1-3 just as often as Plouffe goes 0-4.  But those days where you get a 3-5/2 HRs/4 RBIs from Trevor.  Those days make you happy that you waited on Plouffe and used that higher draft Pick on a comeback pitching performance from an Ian Kennedy.

EXHIBIT D

DUSTIN PEDROIA vs. CHASE UTLEY

Dustin Pedroia will go in Round #2 or Round #3.  He will hit above .300, but a 20 HR/20 SB season is looking like a best case scenario for the Laser Show.  Now I do believe it is important to fill your middle infield, but I also do believe that drafting a player like Pedroia in Round #2 is a huge mistake.  With your #2 Pick or #3 Pick, you need a player that will fill up all the categories.  Pedroia does fill up all the categories, but he does not make an impact in any.

While Chase Utley does come with some injury risk, he was fine when he returned late in 2012.  He appears to be 100% and I would much rather take his potential 6+ Rounds later.  While Pedroia is a great player, he is very much on the Joe Mauer level.  When it comes down to the end of the season, the Joe Mauer type players will not win you your league unless you drafted other sleepers that turned out having amazing seasons.  Do yourself a favor and realize that if you missed out on Cano/Kinsler, then you might as well wait on your 2B option instead of being desperate and reaching for Pedroia.

CONCLUSION

Do not take a player very high because of his amazing batting average.  Of course a player like Buster Posey who will hit .320 with 30 HRs at the Catcher Position makes him beyond amazing.  But a player who puts up good, not great numbers with an amazing batting average is not worth the high pick.  You are sacrificing 3-4 Categories for 1.  You are also sacrificing a high draft pick that could be used for an amazing pitcher.

 

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