FANTASY BASEBALL: PITCHER TRADE MARKET (WEEK 4)
FANTASY BASEBALL
PITCHER TRADE MARKET
By Muntradamus
This article will take a look at some pitchers who are pitching above their fantasy value. And other pitchers who are pitching way below.
The best way to strategize in getting a great value for a pitcher is looking at the other team. Find their weakness for them, I.E.
Your catcher is weak at Ramon Hernandez. I will give you my Alex Avilia who is my Utility player, in return for your “pitcher name here.” In this case it could be Josh Beckett.
The point is, teams will be more desperate for your position players as that is harder to fill, than replacing a catcher on the waiver wire who will give some value.
IF you want ask Muntradamus a question instantly, or other members of the BEAST DOME NATION.
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TRADE MARKET: BUY LOW
*Pitchers that are pitching well below their potential. Now is the time to trade for them. The suggested players are players to offer to the pitcher.
Zack Greinke (5.09 ERA. 1 W. 19 Ks in 17 INN)
Greinke could easy finish this season as the NL CY Young winner. He will get over 200 Ks, and that ERA will be under 4.00. Once the Brewers offense gets going you will want him on your roster.
WHO TO OFFER: Ricky Romero, Gio Gonzalez
Josh Beckett (5.03 ERA. 1 W. 11Ks in 19 INN)
Beckett was fantastic this Spring. Take away his rough debut against Detroit in Detroit, and you have a pitcher of 15 INN, 4 ER, 8 Ks. Those two starts were against Tampa Bay and the Yankees. Once the Red Sox offense gets going, Beckett will be a must-start pitcher.
WHO TO OFFER: Jamie Garcia
Hiroki Kuroda (5.00 ERA. 1 W. 12 Ks in 13 INN)
Kuroda is a pitcher who can easily record 160 Ks, and an ERA around 3.50. The Yankees offense has not gotten going the way they can, and when that happens the Ws will come at a rapid rate. This is a discount price for Hiroki.
WHO TO OFFER: Brandon McCarthy
Jon Lester (5.82 ERA. 0 W. 12 Ks in 17 INN)
Lester threw two gems, and one bomb. He has 200 K potential along with an ERA around 3.00. Now is the best price you will have all season of landing Jon. I still expect 20 Wins.
WHO TO OFFER: Yovani Gallardo
Dan Haren (4.76 ERA. 0 W. 14 Ks in 17 INN)
Haren has a loss against KC, and then two ND’s against Minnesota and Oakland. Not exactly a great way to start the season. But let us not forget the Angels are doing terrible right now, and Haren is usually a pitcher who should get 200 Ks. He started the season out announcing he has arm fatigue, and that is definitely a point to throw in when acquiring him for the cheapest his value could be.
WHO TO OFFER: Ricky Romero, Gio Gonzalez
CC Sabathia (5.58 ERA. 1 W. 22 Ks in 19 INN)
CC is a 20 game winner who will get near 200 Ks and an ERA under 4.00. This is the biggest discount you will get on the hefty lefty. Once him and the Yankees get going, he will be matchup proof.
WHO TO OFFER: Ricky Romero, Gio Gonzalez
Tim Lincecum (10.53 ERA. 0 W. 16 Ks in 13 INN)
Everyone’s favorite pitcher to call bust of the year. Yes people are saying his fast ball is not the same, but am I worried that Lincecum will not find his vintage form?
Not at all.
Timmy is a lock for 200+ Ks, and he pitches in the pitcher friendly NL West. There is no way Lincecum does not bounce back at some point this season. This is the one and only chance to get him this low.
WHO TO OFFER: Ricky Romero, Gio Gonzalez
Madison Bumgarner (3.63 ERA. 2 Ws. 7 Ks in 17 INN)
You are asking yourself, how is Bumgarner a buy-low pitcher with a 2-0 record and an ERA under 4.00?
The reason why he is buy low, is because he is a pitcher that has a chance to break into the ELITE LEVEL this season.
Once the K’s start coming, his value will rise faster than anyone to the point no owner will consider trading him. Now is the time to make the move to give up a better pitcher to acquire him.
WHO TO OFFER: Ricky Romero, Gio Gonzalez
Daniel Hudson (6.00 ERA. 1 W. 12 Ks in 18 INN)
The NL West is a weak division. The Dodgers offense is as hot as it may be all season. The Padres have no offense, and the Giants have an inconsistent not so great offense. Hudson has solid K potential, and once the D-Backs get rolling he will pick up Easy Ws. Hudson is the guy I am least confidence with on this list, but his trade value is at a very low point right now.
WHO TO OFFER: Ryan Dempster
Ervin Santana (6.75 ERA. 0 W. 12 Ks. in 18 INN)
The Angels are struggling mightily, and Ervin Santana is right there with them. Many owners are ready to throw the bait in the wire he is looking so bad. Now is a perfect time to steal him for absoulety nothing. The AL West outside of Texas has very little hitting. Once the Angels get going, Santana will start racking up the Ws and get closer to that 200 K potential.
WHO TO OFFER: Ted Lilly
Max Scherzer (7.97 ERA. 1 W. 17 Ks in 14 INN)
Scherzer is a pitcher who should reach 200 Ks this season. Right now his rate does not show that, and his ERA is terrible. The Tigers offense is going to give him ample run support, and if Max can get his ERA around 4.00, that will make him a lock for 15 Wins.
WHO TO OFFER: Ted Lilly
Clay Buchholz (9.00 ERA. 1 W. 9 Ks in 17 INN)
Clay is an ERA specialist. Right now his ERA is ballooned, but the Red Sox offense is hitting with a flat tire. Once the team heats up, Clay will be close to matchup proof. He showed great potential this Spring.
WHO TO OFFER: Ted Lilly
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TRADE MARKET: SELL HIGH
*Pitchers that are pitching out of their minds. This is the most value they will have all season long.
Bartolo Colon (2.63 ERA. 3 Ws. 19 Ks in 27 INN)
No offense to Bartolo, but he is well past his prime. Yes he is pitching well so far this season, but 3 of his starts came against Seattle. Who has zero offense. And his 4th start came against the Angels who are all slumping at the same time. This is a great stretch for Bartolo, and once he faces a real team his real value will come out.
WHAT TO DO: Package Colon in a trade with another hitter, to upgrade the hitter you are losing.
Chad Billingsley (1.32 ERA. 2 Ws. 17 Ks in 20 INN)
Billingsley is pitching the best baseball he has in his entire career. Why the success? Look at his opponents: San Diego, Pittsburgh, Milwaukee. None of those teams have an outstanding offense, and the Brewers made him look okay with 2 ER in 6 INN. Not as elite against the Padres where he had 11 Ks in 8.1 INN with 0 ER. Billingsley has top 30 trade value right now.
WHAT TO DO: Trade Billingsley to either upgrade offense, or try to grab a pitcher in the list above.
Ted Lilly (0.69 ERA. 2 Ws. 9 Ks in 13 INN)
Ted Lilly has made two starts against San Diego, and the Astros. No wonder his ERA is under 1.00 and has some K ratio to work with. Once Lilly faces a real opponent, these cupcake numbers will not be as great as this. Right now he actually holds trade value, and that is enough reason to deal him now.
WHAT TO DO: Package him in a trade with another pitcher, to upgrade with a pitcher on the above list.
Ryan Dempster (1.32 ERA. 1 W. 23 Ks in 20 INN)
You probaby are thinking, why trade Dempster, he is going to have 200 K potential with an ERA under 4.00. Here is why you should trade him:
1) He is aging as he will be 35 on May 3rd.
2) The Cubs give him zero run support.
3) People are already counting on the 200 Ks, and he is already bothered by a quad injury that has him questionable for his next start. No guarantees he finishes the season strong, or even 28 starts.
WHAT TO DO: Trade him away while his value is this high. You will be able to find takers and get some nice upgrades.
*FEEL FREE TO ASK ANY TRADE QUESTIONS ON THE BOTTOM
Hello Muntradamus,
thanks for all your advice. I see that you have Lilly and Romero on this list a lot of time, why? Are they the perfect pitchers to use in a trade? And I thought Romero was good? Which on of the Texas pitchers would you target as I see them having one of the best lineups that will give any one of their pitchers great run support, am I wrong? Also, should I hold onto Jurrgens, Beachy or Volquez, or try to move them for an upgrade at SP?
thanks
RevClyburn
Rev excellent questions.
1) Why is Lilly on the list?
The reason he is on the list is because the Dodgers are playing at the highest level they will all season. Lilly will not have an ERA below 3.00, so the fact that it is 0.69 means this is the best time to trade him as people will have misconceptions about exactly how valuable he is. You can now upgrade a mediocre Ted Lilly, for a pitcher who was ranked much higher to start the season.
2) I thought Romero was good?
Romero is excellent. In fact he should finish as a top 15 pitcher when the season is over. Everyone in the fantasy baseball world is very well aware of his talent, and they may give you a top 5-top 10 pitcher for him. You are getting an upgrade of a solid pitcher who is pitching well. To an elite pitcher who is pitching less than his value.
3) Which Texas Pitcher if I could have any?
Derek Holland is the answer to that question. Last season after the ASB, Holland was throwing GEM after GEM after GEM. 7 INN, 7 Ks, 1 ER. It was coming automatic. Take away his first shaky start, and Holland has been looking elite. He will have top 25 value by the time the season is over, if not higher.
4) Should I hold onto Jurjjens, Beachy, Volquez?
– I would hold onto Beachy no doubt. He is going to be a solid pitcher all season long with high K potential.
– I would hold onto Jurjjens despite the slow start. Soon he could get it going, and you do not want to see him on the waiver wire when that happens. His trade value is too low where you will get next to nothing for him.
– If you can get some nice value for Volquez, then you can make the trade. He should give you a solid amount of Ks every start, but getting a W as a Padre pitcher is very hard. The offense sucks, and it is very inconsistent. If there are no takes, then hold onto Volquez and hope the Padres start hitting for him.
Keep me updated, and excellent questions Rev.
I just traded Ubaldo Jiminez for Daniel Hudson, was this a good move? My league is a points league. You get 3 points for IP, 5 points for win, 1 for strikeout, -5 for loss, -2 for earned run, -1 for hit, -1for walk.
How about Lance Lynn as a sell high? Who can I target for him?
Also I need to add speed to my roster. I get Emilio Bonifacio and give up either Cameron Maybin or JD Martinez or Humbel??
Definitely a Sell-High candidate as he will move back to the bullpen eventually. I rotate weeks of hitters and pitchers talking about who to sell and buy.
For Lynn you can target a good name hitter. Someone on the cusp of Ichiro, Cuddyer, Willingham.
I would look to move him for something lower if I had to.
If you can give up J.D. Martinez for Bonifacio, make that trade without hesitation.
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