I’M JUST TRYING TO BE THE BEST EXPERT I CAN BE (2014 FantasyPros ACCURACY RANKINGS)
I’M JUST TRYING TO BE THE BEST EXPERT I CAN BE
(2014 FantasyPros ACCURACY RANKINGS)
By Muntradamus
BEAST DOME NATION.
First of all, thank you. Thank you for continuing to believe despite what FantasyPros Ranks me week in and week out. The purpose of this article is to prove to you that not only was BEAST DOME the #1 Fantasy Football Site in 2014 with Pre-Draft Rankings, but no site came even close. There is a reason BEAST DOME is the most expensive Preseason Package than any Fantasy Football Advice site, and there is a reason why the BEAST VIP NATION has returning clients every single season. I will go position by position. Before we start, here is all of the All-BEAST DOME TEAMS of 2014 with Top 5 BEAST CALLS.
MUNTRADAMUS BEAST TEAM 2014
MUNTRADAMUS BUST TEAM 2014
MUNTRADAMUS AVOID TEAM 2014
MUNTRADAMUS TOP 5 BEAST CALLS 2014
#2 – Marshawn Lynch #2 RB. Highest Ranked. *A.Peterson #2 eliminated.
#3 – Cord Patterson (#44 WR). ADP #18 (BUST OF THE YEAR AT WR). VIP
#4 – Toby Gerhart (#44 RB). ADP #17 (BUST OF THE YEAR AT RB)
#5 – Mike Evans #20 WR (Highest Ranked Rookie Year). VIP
OVERALL
Overall I finished #147/#163. Here is the Recap of the “Expert” Who Finished 1st.
Below you will see I was higher on 3/5 players that made this Expert win, BEST DRAFT GUIDE aka Most Accurate Preseason Advice. I do not even consider these 3 Players as my 3 BEST PREDICTIONS of the 2014 season.
STEVE SMITH SR.
MARK INGRAM
MIKE EVANS
Now let us go position by position.
WR
FantasyPros showed the TOP BEAST/BUST PICKS AT WR
BEAST
NO Steve Smith Sr. even though that was one of the few good picks by the guy who won?
Regardless, Jeremy Maclin/Mike Evans/Golden Tate. All three of these players were heavily promoted in the BEAST preseason Package for 2014. I was the only Expert to rank all three of these WR options in the 99.99%tile, when you add Steve Smith Sr. I am in a class of my own. You can see the evidence below.
BUST
My WR Bust Collection was so great, I did not even consider Keenan Allen as one of my top WR Busts of 2014. Not mentioned is Michael Crabtree/Michael Floyd who I had way below the field who had an ECR higher than both Welker (Concussion during Preseason, everyone dropped him) and Percy Harvin (Traded, then BUST). Regardless the pick of Cordarrelle Patterson as a BUST stands out by itself. No player was drafted so high at the WR position that became an instant Waiver Wire Player so quickly in the history of Fantasy Football. Jamey Eisenberg, “The Next Josh Gordon.”
BEAST DOME ALL-AVOID TEAM 2014
Regardless of being the only Expert to call the most BEAST picks at WR, as well as the most AVOID picks at WR. Here is how FantasyPros Ranked me for my Draft Guide.
Overall WR Ranking
#47/#171
Top 10 WR Experts of 2014 (Preseason)
All of them Ranked Cord Patterson as a Top 20 WR.
Only 1 of them Ranked Jeremy Maclin 99.99%tile.
Only 1 of them Ranked Mike Evans 99.99%tile.
All the Rest Were High on all the BUST Picks
RB
FantasyPros showed the TOP BEAST/BUST PICKS AT RB
BEAST
No Mention of Arian Foster or Marshawn Lynch who both fell to 2nd Round? No Mark Ingram either?
The two mentions below are excuse me mentions. Aka the expert just had them highest without any intent of saying he is a MUST-DRAFT.
Justin Forsett was not even Ranked as someone to draft. But when Ray Rice did his elevator thing (BEAST DOME RANKED RAY RICE HIGHEST 2014). I told everyone to add Justin Forsett the first day. In Fact only your Top 50 RBs you Rank count, so not sure why he even was included.
LEAKED FORSETT (WAIVER WIRE WEEK 1)
C.J. Anderson, not even ranked as someone to target. The second Montee got injured and everyone rushed for Ronnie Hillman. I told everyone to add C.J. Anderson.
WAIVER WIRE WEEK 5-6
THE HILLMANS HAVE EYES
Regardless not a lot of sleeper RB’s last season outside of
Arian/Marshawn/Le’Veon/Ingram.
BUST
No Lesean McCoy ECR #1?
No Jamaal Charles ECR #2?
Instead they pick an injured Montee Ball/Reggie Bush/Ben Tate.
The real call was Toby Gerhart. Every Expert Ranked him Top 20 as a great steal in the 2nd/3rd Round. If you drafted Toby Gerhart, chances are the people in your league will never let that down. Better chance is that everyone expected him to do well to begin with as other owners in your league follow the sheep.
I was also able to dig up this list.
MUNTRADAMUS 2014. I LIKE HIM LESS
(FANTASYPROS LIST)
Only RB I was wrong on from this list is Lamar Miller who got a nice path paved for him when Knowshon Moreno got injured in Week 2. 10/11 Correct.
Also note I was the only Expert who Ranked Arian Foster/Marshawn Lynch as my Top 2 RBs. Those two both finished Top 5. While Charles and McCoy finished bottom 5. Easily the difference in winning/losing your league.
OVERALL RB RANKING
#111/#163
All Top 10 Experts ranked Toby Gerhart Top 20.
All Top 10 Experts Were High on my LIKE HIM LESS LIST above.
All Top 10 Experts chose Charles/McCoy over Foster/Lynch.
QB
BEAST
That’s the only pick they can come up with? No love for Joe Flacco who was the RGIII Savior who I ranked Top 12 and ended up outperforming QBs like Matt Stafford?
BUST
No Cam Newton, another great Avoid Call by myself. Regardless, I listed Nick Foles as a BUST and had him at the 99.99%tile. Of Course RGIII was a BUST, of course he got injured. But how can you take another cheap shot on an injured player instead of Cam Newton who had less excuses (14 Games) and a higher rank ECR #10 to not finish on course while RGIII (ECR was #13) missed nearly the entire season after getting injured in Week 2 and was never the same as he was playing on one leg when he came back.
2014 ECR
BEAST DOME ALL-AVOID TEAM 2014
OVERALL QB RANKING
#156/167
Wow did I get penalized for RGIII. So I make one bad pick at QB, have three amazing top notch picks, but I end up nearly last. This is similar to when I had everyone Draft Peyton Manning #1 in 2013 (Only Expert to rank him #1). I was ranked #132/#134 at QB with my 2013 Guide.
I did not expect a high QB Rating this year because of RGIII, but nearly dead last again?
CONCLUSION
Only Expert to Rank a WR Cast of (Jeremy Maclin/Golden Tate/Mike Evans/Steve Smith Sr) in the Top 99.99%tile.
Only Expert to Rank Arian Foster/Marshawn Lynch/Mark Ingram in the Top 99.99%tile.
Only Expert to Rank Arian Foster/Marshawn Lynch over Jamaal Charles/Lesean McCoy.
Only Expert to Rank both the BUST of the year at RB (Toby Gerhart) & WR (Cord Patterson) by a HUGE margin.
Only Expert to have more correct AVOID Picks at RB/WR than any Expert by a long shot when looking at Top 99.99%tile.
Yet I finish near Dead Last.
While the #1 Overall Expert Ranked.
Toby Gerhart #16. Cord Patterson #18. Lesean McCoy #3. Jamaal Charles #1.
Jon Paulsen (worlds most accurate expert according to FantasyPros.)
Jamaal Charles #1. Lesean McCoy #2. Toby Gerhart #16. Cord Patterson #18.
They both ranked Arian Foster in double digit range at RB & Marshawn Lynch #7.
Yet I finish near Dead Last.
Feel free to debate. I will approve/respond to all comments as long as you respond with maturity.
BEAST
Man they are ignoring you totally. I read that article yesterday and called BS. You shouldnt even waste your time with them. But I know your trying to make a name for yourself in the fanstasy scene. Get your spotlight with hedge and franchise, they cant have you messing up their sheep as an expert. Lol. I got paid early today, getting that preseason vip TODAY, look to get season a lil later. Beast munt, I messed with a fewof them for the last couple years paying. I found out last year finding you, I can get most of their paid stuff if I just use fantasypros in the correct way. It’s pretty much the same content.
There is no debate…Fantasy Pros blows and they are hating on your studliness..why i ask? I think you are a threat to the major fantasy sites, who probably give a S**t ton of money to them w/ advertising ext.. YOU DA BEAST and thats why I keep coming back. The fact they did not call Flacco being a beast pick by you, or Golden Tate when others had him so low, shows something fucked up is going on over there, and its def not fair. BEAST
Appreciate it Nick. We will BEAST this season.
I agree with you, but you see these weak experts moving up in the industry so quickly. One is on Baseball Tonight, everyone promoted to ESPN. BEAST DOME would be a global monster by now if FantasyPros was giving it the respect it deserves.
When FantasyPros gives you props, it’s like your movie becomes the featured movie to rent at blockbuster. That is why I want it.
BEAST
While the #1 Overall Expert Ranked
Toby Gerhart #16. Cord Patterson #18. Lesean McCoy #3. Jamaal Charles #1.
Jon Paulsen (worlds most accurate expert according to FantasyPros.)
Jamaal Charles #1. Lesean McCoy #2. Toby Gerhart #16. Cord Patterson #18.
That is how Expert Championships are made, just hit submit on Rankings with ECR pre-set.
Appreciate the support from day 1.
BEAST
I think the issue boils down to they have a specific metric for assessing accuracy and it doesn’t do a great job at actually measuring draft accuracy. It sounds like being right about a larger number of players (quantity) is weighted more than the most important picks (quality) and that later round picks count just as much as earlier round picks. Sure it sucks if your 10th round pick plays like a 15th round pick, but if your 2nd round pick (Gerhart) plays like a 7th round pick, you are F-ed.
Their accuracy measurement is very simplistic and I think people put too much faith into it since it is the only real measurement out there. The rankings cannot take strategy and outside information into account also. Did you get dinged big time for RG3? Of course, but anyone that listened to you also had a solid back up ready to plug in.
It kind of sucks in that FantasyPros is the only real accuracy metric available, so there is so much importance placed on it, but I don’t think it really means much. They just want to get publicity and eyeballs to their site, they don’t really care how accurate or good their rankings are or how well it captures whether someone’s advice helps you win your league or not. For traditional fantasy there is no way to easily translate rankings to wins (the only metric that matters) so they go with comparison rankings and then sprinkle in some certain calls.
Their ranking system is agnostic, I just don’t think it does a great job at capturing what is should be capturing, draft accuracy.
I think you are right.
If a player is going to breakout for the week and his ECR is #34 at the position. Probably best just to rank him #33 and anything from #1-#33 i get the Win. Nothing special if he ends up being #1, just a win.
If a player is ranked #16 and he ends up at #45. No big deal, just a loss.
It sucks that i am penalized for being the only expert who actually tries to make good picks. The other experts might make a couple big changes then hit submit off of ECR. I will try the strategy next season for Week 1.
Appreciate the support as always Fiction.
BEAST
Munt,
I agree with Fiction, FantasyPros assessment methodology doesn’t seem to take into account the variance from ECR your picks are. So you don’t get enough “credit” for BEAST picks that are home runs, but you take a huge hit on a BEAST pick that ends up a bust. Is there any way you can talk to them to get a better understanding on how their methodology, I would like to see their response to this article.
I find all these percentage accuracy numbers posted on their site so confusing to follow. Like the top expert was 69% accurate and the 10th expert was 64%. What does that even mean? The same names keep popping up every year for the top experts, it’s almost like an old boys club.
But at the end of the day, I understand that you want and deserve the recognition. We know you are the best, and the only advice would be to switch up your rankings style every week to see which works best. You did once, and you can do it again! Lets BEAST this season.
Fiction’s comment about quantity vs quality is bang on. If you want to win an accuracy competition, you can make 100% safe picks from top to bottom and never stray too far from the flock. I haven’t seen those top rated guys’ rankings but I bet they all smell like Xerox toner. That’s not BEAST DOME.
I think making picks to try to win an accuracy contest is a completely different mindset from giving out advice to stay ahead of the curve and BEAST your league. If you’re just trying to be “accurate” you’re never going to have the sack to make those big predictions that actually make a difference.
If it was me, I would wear the low rank as a mark of pride… compare it to your clients’ success rate in actual leagues to show that it’s just a bunch of BS.
Kind of like the “team rating” where ESPN gives us a D grade and says we will finish in last place after we draft our BEAST team… frame that s**t and hang it next to your trophy.
If you Google “FantasyPros Accuracy Methodology” you can read up on how they come up with their rating. One thing in there that is interesting is that they scrub out any data that is “unanimous” among their experts — I would be interested to know their exact definition of unanimous. Does that mean 100% unanimous (every single expert) or would they consider 99% or 95% to be unanimous? If the latter is true, then it’s possible that the consensus bust picks (Jamaal, Toby, Cordarelle) might have been scrubbed and not counted against whoever made those picks.
agreed on all. the ‘quantity’ over ‘quality’ thing is the key, and that is exactly what i was going to say!
i had my ‘yahoo C’ from last year saved….the C stands for championship….posted that in smack talk before the season!
Listened to Munt, won the ‘ship.
Anyways, my only request Munt, is if you start doing the rank 33 when everyone does 34 thing….to report to them….could you like, STILL do your private rankings for us VIP’s of what you actually think???
I completely understand and support that you’re wanting to get recognition from F-Pro’s (the F doesn’t really stand for fantasy if you know what i’m saying), and that is recognition YOU DESERVE.
However, it would be awesome to still be able to beast the sheep and know what you really think about the ‘home run’ calls!
If so that’d be awesome, b/c as for me, and i think i speak for a good chunk of beast dome nation here when i say i want to live and die with your BEAST calls, F-Pro’s be damned…
No doubt I will still keep my Rankings the same style I have always done them.
Just when I input them into FantasyPros for Week 1. I will only move my BEASTS up and BUSTS down.
VIP content will be better than ever for 2015 as I go into another season with a chip on my shoulder.
Just trying to be the best Expert I can be.
Probably right. There is no way any of the other Experts make their Rankings from scratch otherwise not everybody would have the same rankings minus one or two moves.
I got a strategy for in-season ranking to make sure I BEAST again. Just move the BEASTS up. The BUSTS down *only a couple of spots. Leave everybody else the exact same as ECR.
In-Season and Preseason VIP Rankings will not reflect FantasyPros Rankings. Just authentic Muntradamus Rankings
Munt should start his own fantasy pros type site that gives the real experts the advantage… A formula that bases on points for how accurate they were with the standard deviation and what not.
Like!! Really appreciate you sharing this blog post.Really thank you! Keep writing.