Fantasy Football: RB Draft Guide Strategy 2012

By Muntradamus

BEAST DOME NATION.

Each day of the week leading up to next Monday I will cover each position of Fantasy Football.  Wednesday is RB.  To read the entire BEAST DOME FANTASY FOOTBALL DRAFT GUIDE 2012, follow the link.

 

RB is the most Hit or Miss position in Fantasy Football after the top 15.

When you get out of the top 15 RBs this season, you are counting on rookies, platoon players, or possible players that can lose their starting RB gig mid-way through the season.

 

WILLIS MCGAHEE IS MUST-DRAFT MATERIAL

• Out of the top 15 RBs this season.  Experts have Willis McGahee at #23, I have him at #11.
• Peyton Manning will get the Broncos in the red zone every single week multiple times.
• Willis is 10 pounds more muscular this season in anticipation of being the clear workhorse back since his days at Buffalo.
• Joseph Addai was consistently a top 20 RB in the Peyton Manning era in Indy. Willis McGahee is night and day a better RB than Addai.
• Broncos will be winning more games, and converting more 3rd downs which means more rushing attempts.
• The Average pick for Willis McGahee according to CBS is #62.  You can grab him confidently in the 4th round.  If you want to play with fire, grab him in the 5th round.

 

WHEN DO I TAKE MY FIRST RB:

• If you can get Arian Foster or Lesean McCoy early in your draft. I would not blame you for grabbing them.  I would prefer Brady and Rodgers however.
• If you miss out on Foster & McCoy, and Brady/Rodgers/Brees are on the board. I would take one of those three QBs and then come back in the 2nd round and grab DeMarco Murray with confidence.  Meaning you are throwing Ray Rice and the Ravens very tough schedule to the hounds.
  
• If you draft near the end of your snake, I would be thrilled to end up with Darren McFadden.  If Brady, Brees, Rodgers are gone, and you own McFadden.  Take a shot with DeMarco Murray in the 2nd round as well and you have two solid RBs right away.
• If you grab a QB and WR with your first two picks, hope that you can get Adrian Peterson in the 3rd round.
• If you really want to go risky and wild and not draft a RB until round 4 and 5 with back-to-back picks.  I would take Fred Jackson and Willis McGahee.  Study the tiers below to see who you can get and where to target those players.

WHEN DO I TAKE MY BACKUP RBS:

*Before I give any tips, I want to say that drafting good backup RBs is 100% necessary in Fantasy Football.  You not only prevent other teams from having the big difference maker who busts into the top 15, you have insurance for the position that gets injured more than any other position in fantasy.

• Grab two RBs from Tier 4.
• If you can have a third backup RB, take one from Tier 5.
• Handcuff your 1st RB.  If you draft Arian Foster you must draft Ben Tate, you do not want to see your best player get injured, and then see Ben Tate be just as good on another fantasy roster.  There will be an article for handcuffs coming out later.

 

Fantasy Football RB TIER RANKINGS:

*Player Analysis is Below.  Round is anticipated for a 10 Team League.  If more teams, just ballpark a bit earlier.  If two QB league, ballpark to draft everyone a lot earlier.

** Next to the guys I really like.

 

Tier 1: (Round 1)

**1. ARIAN FOSTER – TEX

**2. LESEAN MCCOY – PHI

**3. DARREN MCFADDEN – OAK

**4. CHRIS JOHNSON – TEN

**5. RAY RICE – BAL

 

Tier 2: (Round 2-4)

**6. DEMARCO MURRAY – DAL

**7. STEVEN JACKSON – STL

8. MAURICE JONES-DREW – JAX

**9. MARSHAWN LYNCH – SEA

**10. WILLIS MCGAHEE – DEN

**11. ADRIAN PETERSON – MIN

12. RYAN MATTHEWS – SD (Injury hurts value)

**13. FRED JACKSON – BUF

**14. JAMAAL CHARLES – KC

15. MATT FORTE – CHI

 

Tier 3: (Round 5-7)

**16. DOUG MARTIN – TB

**17. CEDRIC BENSON – GB

18. SHONN GREENE – NYJ

19. AHMAD BRADSHAW – NYG

20. TRENT RICHARDSON – CLE

 

Tier 4: Round (8-10)

21. DARREN SPROLES – NO

22. REGGIE BUSH – MIA

23. MICHAEL TURNER – ATL

**24. ISAAC REDMAN – PIT

**25. KEVIN SMITH – DET

26. CHRIS “BEANIE” WELLS – ARI

27. FRANK GORE – SF

 

TIER 5: Round (11-13)

** 28. JACQUIZZ RODGERS – ATL

29. STEVAN RIDLEY – NE

** 30. BEN TATE – TEX

31. BENJARVUS GREEN-ELLIS – CIN

32. DEANGLO WILLIAMS – CAR

 

TIER 6: Round (14-17)

33. MICHAEL BUSH – CHI

** 34. BERNARD SCOTT – CIN

35. BRANDON BOLDEN – NE

36. BILAL POWELL – NYJ

37. PEYTON HILLIS – KC

38. JONATHAN STEWART – CAR

39. RYAN WILLIAMS – ARI

40. DAVID WILSON – NYG

41. MARK INGRAM – NO

42. DONALD BROWN – IND

43. C.J. SPILLER – BUF

44. JAHVID BEST – DET

 

 

TIER 7: Round (18-END)

 

45. JAMES STARKS – GB

46. BRANDON JACOBS – SF

47. ROY HELU – WAS

48. TOBY GERHART – MIN

49. MIKE GOODSON – OAK

50. LEGARRETTE BLOUNT – TB

51. ISAIAH PEAD – STL

52. EVAN ROYSTER – WAS

53. FELIX JONES – DAL

54. PIERRE THOMAS – NO

55. MIKEL LOSHURE – DET

56. MIKE TOLBERT – CAR

57. TIM HIGHTOWER – WAS

58. RASHARD JENNINGS – JAX

59. DANIEL THOMAS – MIA

60. DELONE CARTER – IND

61. RASHARD MENDENHALL – PIT

62. RONNIE HILLMAN – DEN

63. SHANE VEREEN – NE

64. ALEX GREEN – GB

 

 

 

 

RB W/NEW OFFENSIVE COORDINATORS TO NOTE:

 

DEMARCO MURRAY – BILL CALLAHAN – DAL

The Cowboys decided to bring in one of the best offensive line coaches Bill Callahan of the Jets.  Callahan turned nearly every player on that offensive line into a pro bowler, and now he deals with a super talented Cowboys team.  DeMarco should have wide open holes, and a lot of red zone TDs with this move.

 

TRENT RICHARDSON – BRAD CHILDRESS – CLE

Childress was the head coach of the Vikings during the PRIME Adrian Peterson days.  Not saying those days are over, but he groomed Adrian into a superstar back right away.  Richardson has a similar situation, and Childress will do what it takes to make Richardson his claim to fame as an offensive coordinator.  The bad knee of Trent, and the risk of the Browns starting 0-7 could change all that.

 

STEVEN JACKSON – JEFF FISHER – STL

Fisher is actually the head coach of the Rams, but this is a very important one to note.  Jeff Fisher runs RBs to the ground.  Eddie George and Chris Johnson are the two best examples.  Not in a bad way to the ground, but they will get their 300+ touches.  Steven Jackson comes into the season in BEAST shape and is looking for a huge season.  He is only 29 years old, so age is not a determining factor.

 

 

 

BUSTS:

TRENT RICHARDSON – CLE – RB

MUNTRADAMUS RB RANK: #18
AVERAGE EXPERTS RANK: #10

Richardson is the star RB for the worst team in the AFC.  How bad you ask.  They have a rookie QB that nobody will even think about on draft day.  Their star WR Greg Little was also the player who had the most drops in the NFL since being inserted as a starter.  On top of that Richardson is already having knee problems and just saw a specialist to take a closer look.  Avoid Trent Richardson on draft day, he goes way too early for a team that is going to get blown out every week.  Did I mention the Browns have one of the toughest schedules in the AFC as well.

 

MATT FORTE – CHI – RB

MUNTRADAMUS RB RANK: #15
AVERAGE EXPERTS RANK: #8

Forte could very well have a good season.  A top 10 season however, I would count out.  Forte has already lost goal line touches to Michael Bush which is HUGE.  He also just got paid, so his motivation factor could go down to the point where Michael Bush becomes a factor nearly every game.  The biggest reason I think Forte is a bust, is because people are treating him like a 2nd round pick.  Michael Bush is a factor this season, temper your Forte expectations.

 

FRANK GORE – SF – RB

MUNTRADAMUS RB RANK: #27
AVERAGE EXPERTS RANK: #19

Gore is a very unattractive option this season.  Not only did the 49ers improve their passing corpse which means Gore will not get as many carries.  The 49ers also brought in Brandon Jacobs to steal all the TDs.  Gore looked much slower last season, and between Jacobs always hungry for the ball, and LaMichael James/Kendall Hunter also on the sidelines.  I would definitely pass on the loaded 49er players this season.

 

BENJARVUS GREEN-ELLIS – CIN – RB

MUNTRADAMUS RB RANK: #31
AVERAGE EXPERTS RANK: #25

The Law Firm is one of the best goal line backs of all time percentage wise.  He was also a BEAST running up the middle and at times ran for over 100 Yards and grabbed two TDs.  You know why he had such great numbers, because defenses did not care what Green-Ellis did as long as they contained Brady to a respectable game.  The Law Firm will not have that luxury this season on a Bengals offense that is very mediocre when comparing the to the Bengals.  Instead of 5 men in the box when he was a Patriot, he will probably see 6-7 men in the box consistently while defenses just focus on slow him down and A.J. Green.  On top of that, the Bengals are way more suited for Bernard Scott and his triple threat diversity as a RB as opposed to Green-Ellis who can really just run up the middle.  Scott should win the tail back job at some point.

 

JONATHAN STEWART – CAR – RB

MUNTRADAMUS RB RANK: #39
AVERAGE EXPERTS RANK: #26

The Panthers have too many RBs.  With the addition of Mike Tolbert, Stewart will see less touches.  That reason alone makes Stewart nothing more than a backup fantasy RB unless one of the two got injured.  Right now DeAnglo Williams is impressing in camp, which should mean Williams will automatically get his 10+ Carries a game.  Stewart was a great 3rd down back, Tolbert will be taking those touches away as well as red zone TDs.

 

SLEEPERS:

 

DARREN MCFADDEN – RB – OAK

MUNTRADAMUS RB RANKING: #3
EXPERT RB RANKINGS AVERAGE: #7

 

Run DMC is an absolute star.  Injuries have been a problem for him in the past, but if you draft to avoid injuries, you miss out on star players who could easily win your league.  Darren McFadden is the type of player who can score from anywhere on the field at any play.  To his advantage Carson Palmer will have a full year of pre-season to get familiar with his receiving corps which will stretch the field.  When the safeties have to respect the deep pass, that is when McFadden can take off with those huge TD runs.

Run DMC will have 160 Yard 2 TD games with ease, and some experts have him ranked at #18.  Do yourself a favor and target him in the 1st round.
PREDICTION: 272 Carries. 1920 Yards Rushing. 80 Receptions. 800 Yards Receiving. 18 TDS.

 

DEMARCO MURRAY – RB – DAL

MUNTRADAMUS RB RANKING: #6
EXPERT RB RANKINGS AVERAGE: #9

As noted above, the addition of Callahan being the offensive coordinator, Murray should have a special season.  The Cowboys are veering away from Felix Jones entirely which means it will be Murray’s offense.  With how frequently that offense will put up points, Murray will be a STUD.

 

STEVEN JACKSON – RB – STL

MUNTRADAMUS RB RANKING: #7
EXPERT RB RANKINGS AVERAGE: #13

Steven Jackson is in the best shape of his career going on a strict diet to make him more lean and stronger.  With Sam Bradford having another year of experience, this Rams team should be ready to move in the right direction.  Their defense should be better as well as they added Cortland Finnegan, so no more teams will go off for 350 yards with ease through the air which kills time of possession and scoreboard for the Rams offense.  On top of that Jeff Fisher is the new Rams coach, and he knows how to make RB’s successful with Eddie George and Chris Johnson when he was 2K version is the latest examples.

Steven Jackson will get at least 20 touches a game, and some experts have him ranked at #20 for the position!  He is only 29 Years Old, and I personally will be targeting anywhere in the 2nd round.  If he falls to round 3, absolute STEAL.

PREDICTION: 288 Carries. 1328 Yards Rushing. 80 Receptions. 672 Yards Receiving. 14 TDs.

 

WILLIS MCGAHEE – RB – DEN

MUNTRADAMUS RB RANKING: #11
EXPERT RB RANKINGS AVERAGE: #23

 

Willis was an electrifying RB last season with the Broncos.  He could pull of 10+ Yard runs whenever he wanted to it felt like.  The most impressive thing about it was he did it with Tim Tebow which allowed defenses to play extra men in the box because they did not have to respect the pass.  Well now replace Tebow with Peyton Manning and Willis McGahee should see two less defenders in the box this season.  Not only should he see two less defenders in the box, but Peyton Manning will move the Broncos down the field more consistently and convert on way more 3rd downs than they did last season.  With all the added fire power, Willis should easily improve this season and be a BEAST that everyone has to watch out.

Willis McGahee will get 20 carries a game, he could even be used as a 3rd down back.  Ronnie Hillman is no Willis McGahee so do not be afraid of him losing his job.  Some experts have him ranked at #45, I personally will be attacking him in the 3rd or 4th round of all drafts to get the steal of the century.

PREDICTION: 320 Carries. 1760 Yards Rushing. 20 Receptions. 100 Yards Receiving. 17 TDs.

 

 

 

FRED JACKSON – RB – BUF

MUNTRADAMUS RB RANKING: #13
EXPERT RB RANKINGS AVERAGE: #16

The Bills could be one of the most improved teams this season.  They finally have a defense, and that means extra Time.Of.Possession (T.O.P) for Fred Jackson to do his damage.  The Bills said they will be using Spiller, but Fred was the best RB in the game last year before going down.  It will not take long for the Bills to realize that Jackson needs to be spoon fed the ball early and often.  He is 100%, and will look to continue his fantasy dominance.

Some experts have Jackson ranked outside of the top 30, he is a steal if you can get him in round 3 or 4.  100+ total yards, a lot of receptions, and a great amount of TDs will keep his owners busy.

 

PREDICTION: 272 Carries. 1140 Yards Rushing. 80 Receptions. 560 Yards Receiving. 11 TDs.

 

 

SHONN GREENE – RB – NYJ

MUNTRADAMUS RB RANKING: #16
EXPERT RB RANKINGS AVERAGE: #22

We all saw last season how good Willis McGahee was with Tim Tebow.  Now enter Shonn Greene who has been in disappointment city throughout his fantasy career.  Every season there is hype leading up to his name, and every season he falls shorts of expectations.  This season should be different now that Tebow will be the QB who can move the ball way more consistently than Sanchez could ever dream of.  You know the Jets are a better team when they are grinding out yards, eating clock, and then setting their defense up in situations where teams have to play catchup mode.  I see Greene being a workhorse and finally getting over that 300 carry barrier we all know is coming.

Greene will get his 20 carries a game, and he will get double digit TDs on the season.  Experts have him ranked at #43, I personally see him as a good consolation prize if I miss out on Willis McGahee in round 4 or 5.
PREDICTION: 320 Carries. 1360 Yards Rushing. 15 Receptions. 80 Yards Receiving. 12 TDs.

 

KEVIN SMITH – DET – RB

MUNTRADAMUS RB RANKING: #24
EXPERT RB RANKINGS AVERAGE: #46

Jhavid Best still has not been cleared to play with his concussions.  Already with two concussions, it would be wise for the very small Jhavid Best to just retire.  Kevin Smith is looking great at training camp and has already been rewarded with the starting RB spot for now.  Look for Smith to keep it this whole season and outperform his current ranking.  He could very well fall into the top 15 by the time this pre-season is over.

PREDICTION: 160 Carries. 960 Rushing Yards. 80 Receptions. 640 Receiving Yards. 7 TDs.

 

JACQUIZZ RODGERS – RB – ATL

MUNTRADAMUS RB RANKING: #28
EXPERT RB RANKINGS AVERAGE: #49

 

If you remember the Warrick Dunn, Mike Alstott days with Tampa Bay.  We could see a similar situation in Atlanta with Jaquizz and Michael Turner.  Turner is wearing down quicker than ever, he knows it, the coaches know it, fantasy owners know it.  They have already begun talking about limiting him to 250 carries for the season, which translates to about 15 carries a game, and most likely goal-line carries.  That leaves a lot of touches for Jaquizz who is an explosive back that can catch the ball and RUN.  Quizz will be great in PPR leagues, and is worth taking as a #4 or #5 RB in all leagues.  Quizz only needs a handful of touches to have a big game, and he could easily get that and then some.
Some experts have him ranked at #72, I would take him as a solid RB#4 in PPR leagues.
PREDICTION: 100 Carries. 350 Rushing Yards. 80 Receptions. 576 Receiving Yards. 4 TDs.

 

BEN TATE – RB – TEX

MUNTRADAMUS RB RANKING: #30
EXPERT RB RANKINGS AVERAGE: #37

 

Ben Tate is the best backup RB in the game.  If he was a starter on any normal team, he would be in the top 2o, maybe even top 10.  If Arian Foster goes down for any reason, he will be a top 5 RB in that Texans system.  He is a truck that nobody can stop, and even as a backup to Foster he could still score 5 TDs easily this season.  Foster is pretty durable despite missing time to start last season, but there is still that off chance Foster misses a game or two.  The Texans also have the easiest schedule in the NFL, which means a lot of blowouts, which means he will see a few games with double digit carries.  In those game he is worth a start as a FLEX, even as a backup RB.  That’s how good he is.

Some experts have Tate ranked at #49, I would reach for him as a RB#4, possibly draft him as a RB#3 with the potential of having a superstar if Foster goes down.

 

PREDICTION: 160 Carries. 640 Yards Rushing. 32 Receptions. 320 Yards Receiving. 6 TDs. (This is predicted as a backup all season.)

 

BERNARD SCOTT – RB – CIN

MUNTRADAMUS RB RANKING: #38
EXPERT RB RANKINGS AVERAGE: #52

I may be alone on this thought, but I think Benjarvus Green-Ellis is the most overvalued RB in the game.  I will cover him in my bust section in another article.  The Bengals are a much better team with a versatile back like Bernard Scott who can run with speed, catch like a 3rd down back, and block with his heart.  All three cannot be said about Green-Ellis.  If Scott finds himself as a starter, he could easily gather some 80 Yards rushing, 20 Yards Receiving games with a TD making him a must-start Flex option.
Some experts have Scott ranked at #66, I see him breaking the starting lineup this season by Week 5 when they realize BJGE is a blob.  Grab him as a high upside RB4/RB5.

 

PREDICTION: 192 Carries. 753 Yards Rushing. 64 Receptions. 480 Yards Receiving. 6 TDs.

 

 

 

RBs WHO COULD BE STARTERS BEFORE WEEK 8:

More on this topic as it develops through training camp.

1. BERNARD SCOTT – CIN

2. JACQUIZZ RODGERS – ATL

3. DAVID WILSON – NYG

4. BRANDON BOLDEN  – NE

5. BILAL POWELL – NYJ

6. EVAN ROYSTER – WAS

 

Projected RB PLAYOFF RANKINGS (Top 10):

 

*You can be the best team in your league all-season long, but choke in the playoffs having your season be good for nothing.  Players like Ray Rice and Benjarvus Green-Ellis have very tough schedules come the last days of the season.  Of course, first you have to make the playoffs so draft your strategy accordingly.

 

#1. ARIAN FOSTER – HOU – RB

Week 14: @NE
Week 15: VS. IND
Week 16: VS. MIN
Week 17: @IND

#2. LESEAN MCCOY – PHI – RB

Week 14: @ TB
Week 15: VS. CIN
Week 16: VS. WAS
Week 17: @ NYG

#3. DARREN MCFADDEN – OAK – RB

Week 14: VS. DEN
Week 15: VS. KC
Week 16: @ CAR
Week 17: @ SD

#4. CHRIS JOHNSON– TEN – RB

Week 14: @ IND
Week 15: VS. NYJ
Week 16: @ GB
Week 17: VS. JAX

#5. JAMAAL CHARLES – KC – RB

Week 14: @ CLE
Week 15: @ OAK
Week 16: VS. IND
Week 17: @ DEN

#6. KEVIN SMITH – DET – RB

Week 14: @ GB
Week 15: @ ARI
Week 16: VS. ATL
Week 17: VS. CHI

#7. DOUG MARTIN – TB – RB

Week 14: VS. PHI
Week 15: @ NO
Week 16: VS. STL
Week 17: @ ATL

#8. WILLIS MCGAHEE – DEN – QB

Week 14: @ OAK
Week 15: @ BAL
Week 16: VS. CLE
Week 17: VS. KC

#9. RAY RICE – BAL – RB

Week 14: @ WAS
Week 15: VS. DEN
Week 16: VS. NYG
Week 17: @ CIN

#10. DeAnglo Williams – CAR – RB

Week 14: VS. ATL
Week 15: @ SD
Week 16: VS. OAK
Week 17: @NO

 

RB RANKINGS FULL SEASON: