BEAST THE ODD$ (BEAST MACHINE RELOAD 0-0)

By Muntradamus

BEAST DOME NATION.

Look, I do not want to throw shade at my machine after the Yankees game. It is my fault. I did not tell the machine Gerrit Cole was on a pitch count, it assumed Cole would pitch 6 Innings, he only went on to pitch 4 allowing 1 ER before the bullpen blew up. Also, I did not tell the machine Aaron Judge was not playing. For the Yankees to lose in extra Innings when it considered Judge was playing in a great matchup and Cole was 100% healthy, it probably definitely would of won.

I decided to wait until morning the next day, and then I had to get away from my computer and could not post it in time. However the machine did predict the Royals beating the A’s. It also went 4 for 4 on Tuesday. So we are scratching the Yankees game.

I had to make the machine smarter and better. Here is the breakdown it gave for the Twins/Athletics on Friday.

 

Detailed Game Analysis: Minnesota Twins vs. Oakland Athletics

Gather Starting Lineups

Twins:

• LF Trevor Larnach (L)
• SS Carlos Correa (R)
• 3B Royce Lewis (R)
• RF Max Kepler (L)
• C Ryan Jeffers (R)
• CF Byron Buxton (R)
• 1B Carlos Santana (S)
• DH Jose Miranda (R)
• 2B Willi Castro (S)

Athletics:

• 3B Abraham Toro (S)
• CF JJ Bleday (L)
• LF Miguel Andujar (R)
• DH Brent Rooker (R)
• 1B Tyler Soderstrom (L)
• C Shea Langeliers (R)
• RF Lawrence Butler (L)
• 2B Zack Gelof (R)
• SS Max Schuemann (R)

Evaluate Hitters

Twins:

• Trevor Larnach: 7 = 7
• Carlos Correa: 8 + 2 (Hot Streak) = 10
• Royce Lewis: 8 = 8
• Max Kepler: 7 = 7
• Ryan Jeffers: 7 = 7
• Byron Buxton: 8 = 8
• Carlos Santana: 7 = 7
• Jose Miranda: 7 = 7
• Willi Castro: 7 = 7

Athletics:

• Abraham Toro: 6 = 6
• JJ Bleday: 7 = 7
• Miguel Andujar: 7 = 7
• Brent Rooker: 7 = 7
• Tyler Soderstrom: 6 = 6
• Shea Langeliers: 6 = 6
• Lawrence Butler: 6 = 6
• Zack Gelof: 6 = 6
• Max Schuemann: 6 = 6

Integrate Pitcher Analysis

Chris Paddack (Twins):

• Expected innings pitched: 5
• ERA: 5.25
• WHIP: 1.35
• K/9: 8.5
• BB/9: 3.0
• HR/9: 1.3

Matchup-Specific Performance:

• Abraham Toro: Switch hitter, average performance. Paddack’s WHIP suggests Toro might struggle.
• JJ Bleday: Left-handed, good against righties. Likely to get on base.
• Miguel Andujar: Right-handed, good against righties. Likely to get on base.
• Brent Rooker: Right-handed, good against righties. Likely to get on base.
• Tyler Soderstrom: Left-handed, average performance. Paddack’s WHIP suggests he might struggle.
• Shea Langeliers: Right-handed, average performance. Paddack’s WHIP suggests he might struggle.
• Lawrence Butler: Left-handed, average performance. Paddack’s WHIP suggests he might struggle.
• Zack Gelof: Right-handed, average performance. Paddack’s WHIP suggests he might struggle.
• Max Schuemann: Right-handed, average performance. Paddack’s WHIP suggests he might struggle.

Predicted Performance Against Athletics Lineup:

• Expected runs allowed: 3 (considering ERA and matchup-specific weaknesses)
• Expected hits allowed: 6
• Expected walks: 2
• Expected strikeouts: 5
• Expected home runs allowed: 1

Joey Estes (Athletics):

• Expected innings pitched: 5
• ERA: 5.97
• WHIP: 1.45
• K/9: 7.0
• BB/9: 3.5
• HR/9: 1.4

Matchup-Specific Performance:

• Trevor Larnach: Left-handed, good against righties. Estes’s WHIP suggests Larnach might get on base.
• Carlos Correa: Right-handed, excels against righties. High chance of getting on base.
• Royce Lewis: Right-handed, good against righties. Likely to get on base.
• Max Kepler: Left-handed, good against righties. Likely to get on base.
• Ryan Jeffers: Right-handed, average performance. Estes’s WHIP suggests he might struggle.
• Byron Buxton: Right-handed, good against righties. Likely to get on base.
• Carlos Santana: Switch hitter, balanced performance. Estes’s WHIP suggests he might struggle.
• Jose Miranda: Right-handed, average performance. Estes’s WHIP suggests he might struggle.
• Willi Castro: Switch hitter, balanced performance. Estes’s WHIP suggests he might struggle.

Predicted Performance Against Twins Lineup:

• Expected runs allowed: 5 (considering ERA and matchup-specific strengths)
• Expected hits allowed: 7
• Expected walks: 3
• Expected strikeouts: 5
• Expected home runs allowed: 1

Bullpen Analysis

Twins Bullpen:

• ERA: 3.75
• WHIP: 1.25
• Recent Performance: Average
• Matchup-Specific: Generally strong against both left and right-handed hitters.

Athletics Bullpen:

• ERA: 4.50
• WHIP: 1.40
• Recent Performance: Average
• Matchup-Specific: Generally strong against both left and right-handed hitters.

Predicted Bullpen Contributions:

Twins Bullpen (4 innings):

• Expected runs allowed: 2
• Expected hits allowed: 3
• Expected walks: 2
• Expected strikeouts: 4
• Expected home runs allowed: 1

Athletics Bullpen (4 innings):

• Expected runs allowed: 3
• Expected hits allowed: 4
• Expected walks: 2
• Expected strikeouts: 3
• Expected home runs allowed: 1

Calculate Total Runs Allowed:

Twins Total Runs Allowed: 3 (Paddack) + 2 (Bullpen) = 5
Athletics Total Runs Allowed: 5 (Estes) + 3 (Bullpen) = 8

Twins 8

Athletics 5

 

In a similar type analysis it also projected the Dodgers to win 6-4 against the Angels. I will parlay both of those games, Angels lineup is really bad and Pablo Sandoval is not pitching well enough to think he will be able to escape with a quality start.

Can you really go against this machine? I do not think so.